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CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 09-21-2020

(09-21-2020, 10:35 PM)Baggers link Wrote:Sorry K, but leaders, real leaders do what is best for the community at large, when it needs doing. Real leaders know that their decisions can sometimes make people angry and worry, but they don't 'hope' and 'pray', they still act when they KNOW their actions are in the best interest of their people... they KNOW it aint a popularity contest. He did it the first time, to his credit, his failure to do it a 2nd time, when it needed to be done, needs from him a better explanation than anything we have received thus far.
Thats fine but I see lots of people calling him Despot Dan.

Thing is, his recent Bill is very disturbing and is IMHO the worst infringement of Democratic rights I have seen in my lifetime.

Imagine being found guilty and not getting your day in Court?

Very very disturbing.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - madbluboy - 09-21-2020

We had the toughest restrictions in the country. We all followed them (except the BLM protesters), basically were as close go virus free as the other states then his government let the virus back in
Then the prick had the gall to blame all of us.




Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - mateinone - 09-21-2020

(09-21-2020, 08:56 AM)kruddler link Wrote:[member=195]mateinone[/member]
re 2nd wave....
Yes, in hindsight he did act too slow.....in hindsight.
But relative to the rest of the world, he is still ahead of schedule.

Of course there are simple reasons why he acted slow.....people were already b!tching and moaning about lockdowns and how we went into them too fast etc etc.
Damned if he does, damned if he didn't.

NOW people are b!tching about staying in them too long. Which i get. But playing devils advocate, he doesn't want to go through all this BS again, so he's trying to kill it within an inch of its life and be done with it for good.

Yes, its possible to do that and come out of lockdown.
Yes, its possible to do that earlier
etc
etc

But, he's over it, we're over it. He's taking things to the nth degree so we can all move on with life.
Is it perfect? No.
Does it reduce the chance of this thing coming back to bite him in the butt? Yes.
Is he copping some flack over it? Yes. Should he? Probably.
Hotel quarantine aside, i give him a B+.

In hindsight?
Even I was able to often run reasonably close simulations through the use of some pretty elementary programming and statistics and I believed as early as June 30 this outbreak was likely to be much worse than the first wave, that the signs were that a lockdown was pretty much inevitable. Now that is not because I had some secret oracle, or I have some ridiculous gift with numbers, others were publishing similar predictions, we all differed and some by wider margins, but most I looked at were suggesting the path was grim without serious action.

Dan has epidemiologists, teams of statisticians, other medical experts, connections into global resources etc... and he needed hindsight to take the first REALLY SUBSTANTIAL action against the virus earlier than late July?
If Dan has the wrong people working for him, then that his his failure also.
I certainly don't understand how he gets a B+ for his response times?

I am in the middle of rebuilding a modelling tool to determine how many people were likely directly impacted by Dan's inaction and what the differences would be if he had brought forward action plans.

I wont go into a detailed a prediction just yet, because I am not happy completely convinced I have the right model in place, but at this early stage the numbers look like they could be around 10,000 infections could have been avoided by bringing in level 3 two weeks earlier.

If it is 10,000 (or thereabouts) is that an acceptable number because Dan didn't want to frustrate people with a lockdown, which he should have been aware was absolutely going to be required.

The other thing that bringing in level 3 restrictions earlier would have done, was provided a longer framework to analyze the impact of those restrictions compared to level 4 and this could be a reason the government is loathe to go back to level  3 now, but this is idiotic, because the signs were showing significant reductions in new infections during the expected time frame after these restrictions were introduced

Of course he gets a clap for eventually moving to level 4 and even for refusing to bow to pressure, I agree level 4  has absolutely been required, When he announced 6 weeks, a friend asked my opinion and I said, 6 weeks is only a line in the sand it absolutely won't be enough so brace for longer.. So I am not asking Dan to come out and remove the quarantine today, I think it is important that it is in place, but his pathway out....
Do you rank the roadmap out a B+?
You are happy with the Melbourne Uni modelling?
You are happy with the explanation of the 14 day period?
You are happy to trust he is not depriving people of their liberties for longer than they need to be (in this future roadmap  I mean)?
You are happy with the transparency?
You are happy with question time being suspended in parliament for the time it was?
You are happy with Jenny Mikakos's answers the one time she did front?

Dan and the ALP was a very solid A+ for me in round 1
They have failed the Victorian people miserably in round 2 in my opinion and that is the reason why this period of quarantine has needed to be as long as it has been.


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Baggers - 09-21-2020

(09-21-2020, 10:57 PM)madbluboy link Wrote:We had the toughest restrictions in the country. We all followed them (except the BLM protesters), basically were as close go virus free as the other states then his government let the virus back in
[b]Then the prick had the gall to blame all of us.[/b]

To be fair, he didn't blame all of us, just the c0ckheads who blatantly broke the rules and spread the virus. What did happen, though, is that we ALL suffered due to the stupidity of some and as we're now learning, also, the incompetence of tracing equipment, quarantining and elements of government.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - mateinone - 09-21-2020

(09-21-2020, 10:57 PM)madbluboy link Wrote:We had the toughest restrictions in the country. We all followed them (except the BLM protesters), basically were as close go virus free as the other states then his government let the virus back in
Then the prick had the gall to blame all of us

Yes this is a fair blight on Dan also...
His playing with the truth had me frothing in the mouth with anger at the people doing the wrong things (well and I still do), but he overplayed that and when those numbers were contradicted and he relied on semantics.

The people not following rules absolutely contributed to the virus, there is no doubt of this and we can even use age distribution of the virus as reasonable evidence to build a case to support this.

But..
The hotel bungling
The poor testing/tracing
The inaction because he "hoped" it would clear up

These absolutely are considerably bigger factors than the comparatively few people that did the wrong thing and infected people.

He should be ashamed that he was so quick to admonish Victorians, but so quick to shun questions about the governments screw ups.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 09-21-2020

There is a lot made about Dan blaming Victorians, and everyone taking it very personally.

its very "look at me".

If you broke the rules, you can wear that criticism.  If you didnt it probably doesnt apply to you, but hes not going to come out and name individual people and suburbs because they will get lynched.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Professer E - 09-21-2020

Brad Hazzard and his NSW mates didn't exactly cover themselves in glory in a similar manner to the Vic  quarantine bungle.  Bungles - major ones - were overseen by both sides of the political spectrum.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - mateinone - 09-21-2020

(09-21-2020, 11:18 PM)Thryleon link Wrote:There is a lot made about Dan blaming Victorians, and everyone taking it very personally.

its very "look at me".

If you broke the rules, you can wear that criticism.  If you didnt it probably doesnt apply to you, but hes not going to come out and name individual people and suburbs because they will get lynched.

I think it is because it is insulting to those doing the right thing and they are getting frustrated at these people, whilst also covering up goverment bungling.
For example the government did not just volunteer early that their system was overwhelmed due to the inefficient practices with tracing, instead it set neighbour vs neighbour.
People would be less angered if they didn't feel betrayed by the government's failure to self report to the public

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - capcom - 09-21-2020

(09-21-2020, 10:57 PM)madbluboy link Wrote:We had the toughest restrictions in the country. We all followed them (except the BLM protesters), basically were as close go virus free as the other states then his government let the virus back in
Then the prick had the gall to blame all of us.

He totally mismanaged the second lockdown, the quarantine, denied (and continues to deny) any suggestion the Feds made offers to assist with the ADF and his stooges who know nothing (no doubt under instruction from him) magnified the problem and hide the truth. 


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 09-21-2020

(09-21-2020, 11:28 PM)capcom link Wrote:He totally mismanaged the second lockdown, the quarantine, denied (and continues to deny) any suggestion the Feds made offers to assist with the ADF and his stooges who know nothing (no doubt under instruction from him) magnified the problem and hide the truth. 
He lied and was caught out when the ADF said they had the manpower and the offer was made. Its going to cost him his job IMHO next election...