+- Carlton Supporters Club (http://new.carltonsc.com)
+-- Forum: Princes Park (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Robert Heatley Stand (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-14.html)
+--- Thread: What are your expectations for 2017? (/thread-3167.html)
Re: What are your expectations for 2017? - LP - 08-29-2017
(08-29-2017, 01:14 AM)laj link Wrote:I'm liable to really build the midfield. Of the key forwards I am liking McKay, Curnow and Kerr. Kerr really looked the part in the VFL and Josh Fraser really like him.
Yep, Kerr looked competitive even when it turned out he was playing with a hip problem.
I know a lot of people doubt Kerr, but I'd like to make a comparison to put things in perspective. Kerr is every bit the same size shape, speed and kick of a young Taylor Walker. That pretty much puts Kerr in the prime category for a KPF role in years to come!
Re: What are your expectations for 2017? - ElwoodBlues1 - 08-29-2017
(08-29-2017, 01:20 AM)LP link Wrote:Yep, Kerr looked competitive even when it turned out he was playing with a hip problem.
I know a lot of people doubt Kerr, but I'd like to make a comparison to put things in perspective. Kerr is every bit the same size shape, speed and kick of a young Taylor Walker. That pretty much puts Kerr in the prime category for a KPF role in years to come!
Kerr is a good prospect, mobile, has some nous and good skills....I'd be playing him in the pre season games with a view to playing him early in the regular season.
He is another like Mckay who wont learn anything in the NB's playing with duds...
Re: What are your expectations for 2017? - Lods - 08-29-2017
I think we need to be a bit careful putting too much weight on 'getting' rising star nominations.
Dylan Buckley (Rnd 2) and Troy Menzel (Rnd 16) were rising star nominations in 2014.
Identifying the talent is one thing...Developing it is a different thing altogether.
If we've improved in that area the class of 2016-17 will start to show the benefits of that next year.
Re: What are your expectations for 2017? - sydneybluesfan - 08-29-2017
A statistical analysis will show that you need 25 scoring shots to be average in the comp - this applies this year and is pretty consistent for the last few years. If you have 25 you will win half your games and you will be around the bottom of the 8.
In our 2011 year we averaged 29 shots for 15 wins. We had over 25 shots in 17 of 24 games. Only 2 times did we have 20 or under shots.
Fast forward to 2017 - we average 20 shots per game [rank 18th]. We had 1 game where we had over 25 shots, and 12 games were we had 20 or under. The numbers are actually slightly worse than last year - we went backwards on shots but our accuracy was a bit better.
It is a mathematical certainty that unless we significantly improve our scoring power we won't move up the ladder. A stronger midfield is obviously part of the equation and we need more powerful midfielders to compete for longer in games, but we need to find some quality goal kickers fast. McKay and Kerr are both still 2 years minimum from hopefully being consistent goal kickers, and I hope they develop into world beaters.
It is no surprise that our fall down the ladder has been assisted greatly by our losing consistent goal kickers [Waite, Betts, Gartlett] and our inability to find any via trade or draft any replacements of even equal output. Until this changes we are stuck where we are.
Re: What are your expectations for 2017? - flyboy77 - 08-29-2017
i have to disagree.
The slow, ball movement, keeping off style implemented by BB this year is a deliberate ploy by the Coach to teach the kids the importance of tempo during a game.....
Of course, we need a McKay to step up as a key forward but we showed in a handful of games that we can move the ball quickly and kick a handful of goals or more in a quarter.....
We bolster the midfield and there will, by default, be a lot more I50 entries....
All that aside, would love to see Ben Saunders in the Navy Blue next year!
Re: What are your expectations for 2017? - cookie2 - 08-29-2017
(08-29-2017, 03:37 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:i have to disagree.
The slow, ball movement, keeping off style implemented by BB this year is a deliberate ploy by the Coach to teach the kids the importance of tempo during a game.....
Of course, we need a McKay to step up as a key forward but we showed in a handful of games that we can move the ball quickly and kick a handful of goals or more in a quarter.....
We bolster the midfield and there will, by default, be a lot more I50 entries....
All that aside, would love to see Ben Saunders in the Navy Blue next year!
Tend to agree. This year has been primarily about player development. Next year will be a development year too but I'm also hoping to see this year's work reflected in our performances and results.
Re: What are your expectations for 2017? - mateinone - 08-29-2017
(08-29-2017, 03:37 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:The slow, ball movement, keeping off style implemented by BB this year is a deliberate ploy by the Coach to teach the kids the importance of tempo during a game.....
That I agree with, a slightly different benefit, as I believe that understanding the players defensive roles in a slow motion version of the game will allow them to transition 'by default' at turnovers, without the relentless pressure of everyone being out of position. It will allow them to pinpoint who has fluffed their lines and make sure that player is educated in their roles.
Similar thought pattern, but 100% agree that the slow deliberate hands off football has been part of a greater teaching curve that Bolton is trying to implement and I suspect that the shackles will come off and the tempo will increase next season
Re: What are your expectations for 2017? - LP - 08-29-2017
Jon Anderson has fixed things for us, we're cured!
Quote:THE SOLUTION
Close out more games. Eight times they lost after leading at the 10 minute mark of the last quarter, and in terms of quarters won were competitive with teams around the eight.
Lordy be, so simple! :o
I don't mind Jon he's not a Ralph, but this article is a little thin on detail!
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/carlton/carlton-end-of-season-review-how-id-fix-the-blues/news-story/e25b35e4cc7222eff22948e00fb68d4f
Re: What are your expectations for 2017? - Baggers - 08-29-2017
CARLTON avoided the wooden spoon and, while it didn’t win as many games as 2016, showed significant development in its young list.
JON ANDERSON runs the rule over the Blues’ season and gives his thoughts on what the club needs to do to shoot up the ladder next year.
THE SEASON ROUND UP
If you win one game less and end up with a very similar percentage as last year then it should be nothing to write home about, but reality says the Blues made incremental gains in some key areas.
In 2016 they were on the receiving end of six floggings, a number that was reduced to just two (Port Adelaide and Geelong). Last year they beat just one finalist in Geelong, a number they doubled in beating Sydney and Greater Western Sydney. And they have a clear kick/mark game plan which normally results in them defending turnovers.
THE PROBLEM
Get the game played out of their back half, because the ball spent too long there this year. Player-wise, they are at least two gun midfielders shy of where they need to be for finals action, although one or both of those spots could come from natural development of existing players. They also require another ruckman for depth, because if Matthew Kreuzer fell over it would come down to the injury-plagued Andrew Phillips.
They would also love to see the emergence of one or both of their young forwards in Pat Kerr or Harry McKay to become a marking and leading target.
THE SOLUTION
Close out more games. Eight times they lost after leading at the 10 minute mark of the last quarter, and in terms of quarters won were competitive with teams around the eight.
Part of that comes down to a lack of physical strength.
By extension they also need to finish seasons stronger, given they have won just two of their last 20 games in the back half of the past two years. From what we have seen from Brendon Bolton and his coaching staff, they appear up for the challenge.
THE TARGET
They’re still sweating on key forward Levi Casboult and will be waiting to see if Bryce Gibbs tries to get home to Adelaide again, but the biggest need is ruck help for Kreuzer — and that just might come in the form of Collingwood’s Mason Cox.
They are quietly confident a run at the bottom half of the eight is not out of the question. For that to happen the Blues will need to tinker with a game plan that normally restricts opposition scoring but doesn’t result in free-scoring (only twice in the past 44 games have they passed 100 points).
Being hard to play against, which they generally are, is one thing, but learning a winning culture is a whole new ball game.
THE DREAM/BLUE SKY IDEA
Obviously class in the midfield the likes of Richmond’s Brownlow Medal favourite Dustin Martin or GWS jet Josh Kelly is the dream, but not a reality. That aside, blue sky is for the kids — players such as David Cuningham, Charlie Curnow, Zac Fisher, Harrison Macreadie, Caleb Marchbank, Harry McKay, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Jack Silvagni, Jarrod Pickett, Jacob Weitering and Tom Williamson — continue to develop.
That would mean they challenge for the eight next year, definitely make it the year after and have a real crack in 2020.
GARY BUCKENARA SAYS
Lion Tom Rockliff would definitely be a player of interest. He’s a free agent and suits Carlton’s needs as a bigger-bodied midfielder who wins his own ball and can also hurt on the scoreboard.
THE STATS
FEELING BLUE
STAT RANKING
Points scored 18th
Points scored from turnovers 17th
Points scored from stoppages 18th
Generating score once inside 50 18th
Offensive ball movement 17th
IN TROUBLE?
Four the Blues could cut:
Daniel Gorringe
Kristian Jaksch
Dylan Buckley
Denis Armfield (Retired)
2018 PREDICTION
9th-16th. I think 2018 is still too early for finals action, but a target of 10 wins is realistic.
Re: What are your expectations for 2017? - kruddler - 08-29-2017
(08-28-2017, 10:41 PM)mateinone link Wrote:So
There is no way this is a fail?
So when we decided to keep the list together last year, those that argued against cutting deeper argued you can't afford to continue to bottom out.
So, winning 2 less games and finishing lower on the ladder... there is NO WAY this can be considered a failure?
I disagree.
I think the coaching staff has done as well as I would expect. I don't have an issue there.
I think the club has performed at about the level I PREDICTED, as in I thought we already had the worst list and 14-16th was going to be the result, no matter how hard we traded out our top players.
So with us performing at a level that saw us bottom 3 (and make no mistake, I think we will go to that 10th area on the ladder next year), I think we missed a chance to bring in even more youth and to try and find homes for some of our elder players (who actually had good seasons in my opinion).
So I think with the playing list we performed adequately and developed players nicely, but I think the board cannot get a free pass forever. I think drafting players like Smedts was a perfect example of horrible list management.
I give our coaches a 5-7/10 this year, this list they maintained to me was still the worst (or close to worst) list in the competition.
But I give our football club, overall... about a 3/10.
And if they don't get into that top 10 next year, then there will need to be serious ramifications and it should not start with the coach.
I took issue with your original prediction for the same reason i take issue with this now.
EVERY club wants to improve their list. Upgrade senior players and bring in more youth. However, like with Gibbs, if what you can get is of lesser value to you than what you have, you dont do the deal, otherwise your list is worse.
Makes sense right.
But, as i said on page 1, it takes 2 to tango. You can sell if nobody is buying.
So the club failed because (potentially) nobody wanted our players? I can't buy that.
I agree we should've cashed in, but again you need someone to pay.
Given what we had available, the season went as well as i had predicted and expected.
Next years prediction comes after we finalise our list.