(08-27-2020, 03:53 AM)kruddler date Wrote:Isn't that a factor of herd immunity?

Less people who can get it means less people will get it.

(08-27-2020, 05:08 AM)ElwoodBlues1 link Wrote:A Virologist on the ABC last night suggested that the CoVid19 virus in structure is weakening to what it was back at the start.
Growths rate in the lab is still the same but it isnt attacking good cells the way it was and that is a good chance it will become weaker and turn on itself and thats how the virus will be eradicated maybe even before a decent vaccine is available.
There are reports of re-infection in people even months later so the antibodies either dont remain or their are new/changed strains which isnt going to make finding a vaccine any easier.

(08-27-2020, 01:06 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:Wrong in one critical aspect Thry. And I'll try and post the chart (a jpg)! Any hints?

Saying the numbers were 'out of control' is simply emotional rhetoric.

The actual (and modelled) effective reproduction rate (DHHS data) had already peaked and was heading south before even Stage 3 restrictions were reintroduced.

And, in fact, that number was comfortably below the 'magic' 1.0 mark (around 27 July) WELL BEFORE Stage 4 restrictions. Let alone allowing any lag time for 'effect'.

Fact. And essentially confirmed by third party modelling.

So, the only reason for doing it was political.

As to the efficacy of lockdowns and other NPIs - the latest study certainly makes one's eyebrows rise!

https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-and-mask-mandates-do-not-lead-to-reduced-covid-transmission-rates-or-deaths-new-study-suggests/

(08-27-2020, 05:13 AM)kruddler link Wrote:@Fly....
The reason for going to stage 4 was not because it was running away, but because the decline was going too slowly that it would extend stage 3 for longer than required.

Stage 4 was planned so that stage 3 would be required for less time than had stage 4 not been implemented at all.

So that leads us to the other question? Why no decline since masks and stage 4??

At a guess....its still too soon to tell.
At another guess....stage 4 was not a huge step up compated from stage 2 -> stage 3.
And a final guess.....people simply are not buying into it anymore. The backlash over this has been far in excess to anything i predicted. The anti-maskers, anti-government, COVID conspirators etc are growing in numbers and its ruining it for everyone.

So....how much of this is Dans fault? 
SFA

(08-27-2020, 05:23 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:With all due respect FB, nothing you have stated here actually discusses any point I was making so you are disagreeing with what point that I have stated?

FWIW, I dont speak from public numbers either.  I speak from my anecdotal experience of what I am seeing at the health network I work at.

I.e.  6 weeks ago, they were actually reverting back to normal at the health network I work at.  Our covid cases being admitted were low, and elective surgery was back on the table.  So much so, that the dedicated covid ward had been halved. 

Meanwhile, It was only last week, that one of our hospitals went live with a "clean and dirty" zone in their emergency department (an indictment on whoever is running the show there) but I think they were funnelling a lot of patients elsewhere until the numbers jumped in presentations at all sites.

The data at state, national, international level can paint whatever picture people want it to, but I want to point something out.

Most of the time, statistics are a lagging indicator.

What our management and Chief Medical Officer has been stating, is that the jump in numbers of positive cases don't lead to an increase of hospitalisation with anything but a 10 day lag time, and everyone started feeling very uncomfortable the minute we got to 100 positive cases per day and the discomfort wasnt seen in the network I work at for at least another fortnight.

Even now, there is a greater number of COVID positive patients at our hospital than there was even 1 month ago.  Why else do you think we are hearing about Peninsula health having 600 staff on furlough now?

The biggest problem?

We are a population of 5 million people (roughly across the city).  Our current total of positive cases is roughly 18714.  Our current Active cases is at 3300 odd.  Our deaths are sitting at 485, and our hospitals are under considerable strain with respect to their staffing already.  We have a very small sample number of what this virus can and cannot do, and I am not even speaking about that.

We can go with the open slather approach, let COVID run rampant, have most of our hospitals unable to be staffed, and then have stroke patients, dialysis patients, cancer patients, etc go into hospital for a "standard" health problem, and then have complications from their admission by contracting Covid whilst they are in there.

Its a very short sighted based on public viewpoint, to turn around and quote numbers, without seeing how this can quickly run away from us, and that is entirely the point of masks and lockdowns.  Its not necessarily there to stop the spread.  They actually prevent the behaviour that will cause the spread.  I.e. masks are uncomfortable, so less people put themselves in situations where they must wear one, therefore the mask works because it deters a behaviour that would otherwise cause people to spread the virus around.

Even our testing numbers dont tell a story.  We have incidents of people being tested 4 times, walking away happy as larry after a few weeks developing symptoms and coming back with a positive result shocked.  The reality?  They got sick somewhere after their last test.  Therefore take the millions of tests performed, quarter the number, and you are closer to the number of people actually tested to achieve a positive result.

Do the stats you quote show any of the above data?

(08-27-2020, 05:29 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:But again, the gradient did not increase post Stage 3 lock down, even after allowing a lag.

And before masks.

Dan's fault? 100%.

Let's be frank, if the government was a corporate, and Dopey Dan the CEO, he would have been removed by the Board months ago.

He has presided over the greatest public health disaster in Australian history.

A staggering cost of 100s of lives (already, more into the future from suicide, DV, increased crime) and a massive economic cost to boot.

Need I go on?