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+--- Thread: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong (/thread-6475.html)
Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong - Blue Moon - 04-28-2024
Watched the Video. Geelong are a good team that played very well. Their best player played very well. They have very few injuries. We butchered the ball in defence and going forward and we missed too many easy goals while they kicked just about everything. After quarter time they broke even in the middle and they were cleaner all day with the ball. They tackled hard and bullied our younger players, but not unfairly. They are well organized, disciplined and know how to win. We didn't give up. In the end we could have won.
While our injuries are a major concern and has destabilized our back line, we make too many mistakes. I think defensively we are getting drawn to the ball but not impacting on the contest and when the ball spills to the opposition they have players free out the back which leads to easy goals against us. We either need to impact the contest or have players structured back to prevent these out breaks.
The umpiring was appalling. They made wrong decisions that led to Geelong having extra chances which they often took. I think Williams got hit in the eye which is why he went down and whether he went down a bit easy or not, it was another free kick to us the umpires missed which resulted in a goal. I note the Match Review Committee found the incident warranted a fine for the Geelong player. Maybe the Fox commentators might admit they may have got it wrong, but I don't expect it.
I watched On The Water Front the other day. Carlton has to decide whether they want to be contenders or not. We need to get tougher in our heads. Too many missed opportunities. We need to get better.
Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong - Lods - 04-28-2024
(04-28-2024, 08:10 AM)kruddler link Wrote:Right now, i'd drop Young for Cincotta. Give Kemp the lockdown role and allow Cincotta to cover the intercept role, which adds more run.
When the game starts getting wetter, you'd think about dropping one more tall. We'll wait and see who is out of form at the time.
The decision is made easier right now because we don't have Silvagni available, or any other option for 3rd tall.
There was never any doubt about their 'styles of ruck' or that they compliment eachother. The issue was they they were both doing not very much around the ground.....at all.
TDK was lacking in ruck area, and performing worse than Silvagni as a forward......but better than Pittonet as a non-ruck option.
Pittonet was performing better in the ruck, but not doing enough around the ground.
BOTH of them are not only performing better around the ground, but both are being genuine options around the ground and up forward.
Pittonet kicked a goal first game back. TDK kicked 3 last week, and 0.3 this week. I showed stats on pittonets ruck AND around the ground work and how it was the same or better than both rucks combined....and even 2 mids combined in clearances.
That kind of form from both of them was nowhere to be seen last year. THAT is what has changed......and thankfully its changed when the cupboard is very bare behind them.
However,
Once we start getting players back, if you want to play both rucks in your 22, you are leaving out someone like Kennedy, Cottrell, Hollands (x2), Williams.....etc.
That would be sad (the bit in bold) but maybe necessary…because right now both Rucks offer more than most (if not all) of those mentioned in terms of game influence. The other thing is that it assumes all those players are in form and uninjured. If we only need to lose one to play the two rucks it probably won’t be an issue.
The important thing is both our Ruckman continue to stay healthy and maintain a degree of form. They will no doubt have a poor game here or there, but it would probably need to be a patch of multiple poor games before one loses their spot. DeKoning is still improving, and time together can only develop the combination and understanding with Pittonet
Wet weather during winter may be an issue and it may be a time when the one ruck option is looked at. But it won’t rain all winter, and games at Marvel are a ‘non-issue’ as will be most of the interstate games.
There’s a bit of a contradiction in your post. A lot of it is about the ‘future’(when it rains, when players return from injury) and what might happen, yet the judgements made on the two-ruck situation were made in the ‘present of 2023’ when there were aspects of both players not up to scratch, and both struggled a bit with injury at stages during the season.
Judging in the present is also one of the issues with statistics. They are a measure of the past, (even last weekend’s statistics). A string of good games by a player and those early season statistics can alter dramatically.
We don’t know what will happen in the games to come and a whole lot of variables will come into play. The team we’re playing at ‘present’ may be completely different to the side that takes the field at the end of the year. We may get players back… and/or (perish the thought) we may lose important players. There’s not a lot of point predicting a line-up with a full side to choose from, because that’s a pretty unlikely scenario.
If we do have a full side to choose from, they might as well just give us the cup.
Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong - LP - 04-29-2024
(04-28-2024, 08:10 AM)kruddler date Wrote:Once we start getting players back, if you want to play both rucks in your 22, you are leaving out someone like Kennedy, Cottrell, Hollands (x2), Williams.....etc.The above assertion is just an extension of the media trying to peg Voss on a fixed selection strategy, nobody should be gifted a spot, the MC should not take a formulaic approach. the real world is not like Supercoach.
Week to week MC selections should be based on merit, conditions and the strategy of the day. I hope our MC will be clever enough to analyse and pick the eyes out of the best strategies for each opponent, some weeks we might go tall, some weeks we might go small.
Every week the opposition will try to leverage our deficiencies, if we are predictable it becomes easier for them, like last weekend kicking it on the head of Charlie or BigH who were stuck between 2 or 3 defenders.
Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong - blueboys_1 - 04-29-2024
(04-28-2024, 04:18 AM)laj link Wrote:The positive is we did near everything wrong, defensively terrible, never really switched on properly, little focus on our basics, half the side out and lost by just 13pts.
The negative is we did near everything wrong, defensively terrible, never really switched on properly, little focus on our basics and if that doesn't improve then getting blokes back won't help as it should. Pressure rating spent much of the day in the 160s, only going over 200 when we were a few goals behind.
Last week was similar until mid-way through the 3rd qtr where every changed once we were 20pts down. Pressure rating went from the 150s straight to 240 and stayed there changing the game. Maybe we thought we could get away with it again and didn't.
I followed the pressure ratings the last 2 weeks and it rose massively once we fell behind. Once we raised it both GWS and Geelong had issues with it. Yesterday, not long enough.
Thinking after that presser from Voss that defensively we will be way better next week. Won't be 118 to 105 again.
Been thinking that the last 3 weeks the opposition is scoring very easily against us on transition Listening to Sunday pre game and they were talking about our Defensive transition I think and came up with the following stats.
Adelaide: 25 scoring shots from 49 entries.
GWS: 27 scoring shots from 51 entries.
Geelong: 28 scoring shots from 45 entries.
Better than 50% from each team.
That will not stand up in finals.
Good thing is it is something that can be fixed and worked on during the season.
Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong - LP - 04-29-2024
Yet I wouldn't say the defensive problems are a function of our defence.
I'd assert, many of the shortfalls come from the other end of the ground or perhaps the midfield. It's possibly being masked by some players having good tackling or 1%er stats, but the counts can be misleading, it's far more important to know where and when they collect those stats.
For example, how many times did a Tuohy or Guthrie type find themselves unattended just outside of goal range, and Cameron for that matter? How many times was Cameron unattended exiting our F50, the escape kick, then became a target a kick or two later inside our D50? There is next to nothing the defence can do about that, the problem starts further up the field and it's not about body type or size, it's about evening up the numbers and closing down space.
Many times the Handbaggers were actually forced by our defence to pause entering our D50, and yet they still ended up with a loose player as a target inside F50, that player comes from somewhere in the overlap created outside of the arc.
Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong - Gointocarlton - 04-29-2024
(04-29-2024, 01:34 AM)LP link Wrote:Yet I wouldn't say the defensive problems are a function of our defence.Sometimes perfectly executed passes make it look like the defenders arent doing their job. Geel on Sat reminded me of the the Hawks during their premiership years with all those deadly left footers hitting targets in traffic at will.
I'd assert, many of the shortfalls come from the other end of the ground or perhaps the midfield. It's possibly being masked by some players having good tackling or 1%er stats, but the counts can be misleading, it's far more important to know where and when they collect those stats.
For example, how many times did a Tuohy or Guthrie type find themselves unattended just outside of goal range, and Cameron for that matter? How many times was Cameron unattended exiting our F50, the escape kick, then became a target a kick or two later inside our D50? There is next to nothing the defence can do about that, the problem starts further up the field and it's not about body type or size, it's about evening up the numbers and closing down space.
Many times the Handbaggers were actually forced by our defence to pause entering our D50, and yet they still ended up with a loose player as a target inside F50, that player comes from somewhere in the overlap created outside of the arc.
Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong - Blue Moon - 04-29-2024
I wondered whether the Fox commentators would admit they got it wrong on the Williams incident after the MRO handed out a fine but I didn't think so. They have now doubled down and called for his dropping. Do these people ever wonder why no one actually like them.
Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong - madbluboy - 04-29-2024
(04-29-2024, 04:09 AM)Blue Moon link Wrote:I wondered whether the Fox commentators would admit they got it wrong on the Williams incident after the MRO handed out a fine but I didn't think so. They have now doubled down and called for his dropping. Do these people ever wonder why no one actually like them.
He was terrible. Defence wins premierships and he can't defend. With Saad and McGovern we can afford to have him there for his rebound but not now.
Ironically we played better when he went off against the Giants.
Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong - LP - 04-29-2024
What happened to Williams has always been a free, his flopping is a symptom of the Handbaggers being allowed to scrag and delay players way off the ball. Even if he wasn't scraged it's unlikely he would have got half way to the opponent before they scored, it's the absence of the free that changed the game not Williams ability to get near the fall of the ball.
The discussion about Williams is a smokescreen to stop the focus on an illegal Handbagger tactics, nothing more and nothing less.
Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong - Lods - 04-29-2024
I wouldn't be dropping Williams this week.
(Although it might be high on Voss's agenda.)
He's come in for some severe criticism so the onus is on him now to prove his mettle.
It's a character test for him, and he has the talent to rise to it...it's whether he has the attitude and will.