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+--- Thread: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon (/thread-6534.html)
Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon - DJC - 06-14-2024
(06-13-2024, 10:50 PM)Lods link Wrote:You know what I'm getting from all these stats is this...
Hit out stats are totally useless.
HTA stats are also pretty useless given their low frequency.
Even clearance stats aren't that reliable unless the clearance clearly advantages your side.
The thing that really matters is the connection between your ruckman and his midfielders in terms of positioning, both attacking and defensive, and the second efforts of all players in the vicinity.
That's not something you can measure with a statistic.
It's something you observe.
If you're in any doubt about who was the most effective ruckman in our game last weekend just watch the game again.
You could probably say the same about most footy stats viewed in isolation, but hitout stats are particularly fraught because the ruckman is only part of the stoppage process; his success relies in part on the ability of his midfielders and their combined efforts to win the ball and get an effective disposal away. His success also involves nullifying the opposition ruck’s ability to direct the ball to his preferred zones and, with his midfielders, preventing the opposition from winning possession and getting an effective disposal. Stats can’t measure all of that.
De Koning was influential around the ground as well as being part of an effective stoppage process. He was clearly best on ground despite “losing” the hitouts and HTAs, and not laying a tackle.
Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon - Lods - 06-14-2024
(06-14-2024, 12:03 AM)DJC link Wrote:You could probably say the same about most footy stats viewed in isolation.
Absolutely.
It's not so much the use of stats that's the problem in many cases
It's the selective use of individual stats, and the ignoring of others, that contribute to the overall picture and don't necessarily support an argument or a point being made
A lot was made of the number of inside 50s that Essendon had compared to ours.
To get a proper picture and determine the effectiveness of that statistic we need to also consider other factors-
The shallowness of the inside 50s
The rebound factor
The accuracy (disposal efficiency) inside 50s
The position where the inside 50 ended (on an angle, directly in front, deep into a pocket)
Goalkicking accuracy-goals, points, out of bounds
Structure- players loose, kicks to contests etc etc.
If they're to be used in meaningful way all contributing stats need to be included.
Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon - DJC - 06-14-2024
There is one stat that tells the story of the game: Peter Wright - zero marks.
In a previous post, I referred to the 21 to 25 shots at goal statistic. In fact, that’s not shots at goal because it doesn’t include shots that miss completely, drop short or are marked by either team. It’s not scoring shots either because it includes rushed behinds (five to Essendon, one to us); that was actually 20 shots each.
Footy statistics are fascinating, both for their usefulness in appreciating the subtleties of the game and for the disconnect between statistics and performance that can often be the case.
Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon - LP - 06-14-2024
(06-14-2024, 12:28 AM)Lods date Wrote:If they're to be used in meaningful way all contributing stats need to be included.Even then it can be muddy, because like the situation with the rules the AFL enforce there own interpretation on the events that generate a stat.
We've been through this before, and perhaps the best example is what the AFL define as a contested possession versus what the average fans thinks of as a contested possession. For example I'm not surprised if fans think a contested possession requires some physical contest with contact from an opponent, like shoulder to shoulder attacking the footy, but the AFL definition only requires an opponent in the approximate vicinity. A player in the vicinity who wins the footy gets a Contested Possession stat, and the player in the vicinity exerting what we can best describe as "proximity" gets a Pressure Act or 1%er.
It's one of the reasons why you can't even compare stats from one source versus another, because they use different definitions.
A while back there was an isolated example of stupidity of stats, a player at a ruck contest was or wasn't credited for a HtA for having the ball bouncing off his head directly to a team-mate. Technically it's probably correct for either outcome, but it's a measure of luck more than a measure of ruck work. Many times we've seen rucks miss the footy completely for it to then come off a knee or shoulder and go to the advantage of a team-mate, sometimes in a direction that is seemingly random, who decides? A stat yes, a measure of skill, hardly!
Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon - deepbluesee - 06-14-2024
The most important stat from the Essendon game (and all games for that matter) is the Points For v the Points Against. Carlton 96 to Essendon 70 is what I care most about. Everything else can be read in many ways to suit anyone and many times will just muddy the water.
Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon - kruddler - 06-14-2024
(06-13-2024, 10:50 PM)Lods link Wrote:You know what I'm getting from all these stats is this...
Hit out stats are totally useless.
HTA stats are also pretty useless given their low frequency.
Even clearance stats aren't that reliable unless the clearance clearly advantages your side.
The thing that really matters is the connection between your ruckman and his midfielders in terms of positioning, both attacking and defensive, and the second efforts of all players in the vicinity.
That's not something you can measure with a statistic.
It's something you observe.
If you're in any doubt about who was the most effective ruckman in our game last weekend just watch the game again.
Remember our chat about sample size of data....thats what is important.
Any individual game can be an anomoly.
Look at the same information, over weeks and years and you will get trends that 'absorb' these anomolies.
For example, look at the results this week. Look who won, who lost and the margin. Use that information to tell me who the best team is.
Now, if that is the only data you have, what information could you get out of that in terms of overall strength of any one team relative to another? Relative to last week? Last year? Last decade?
Our first 5 games of R13 were this....
North Melbourne won.
Richmond won.
Hawthorn won
Brisbane won
St. Kilda won
Based on that and that alone, you would think that those teams should be in the top half of the league (they won, same amount of teams lost, so they are top half).
Based on that, you would probably look at the margin each team won by....which would rank them in this order....
Brisbane
North Melbourne
Richmond
Hawthorn
St. Kilda
Extrapolate that out and you would assume that Brisbane and North Melbourne are the most successful in recent years as they had the best margin.
In isolation, thats all you have.
Then you look at the ladder...
12th - Hawthorn
13th - Brisbane
14th - St. Kilda
17th - Richmond
18th - North Melbourne
That paints a completely different picture.
Then go back and look at where they finished last year.
Look at average finishing position over the past 10, 20, 50, 150 years.
Look at finals made, flags won...
Eventually you will get a better understanding of who is actually good now, last year, over the past decade or 2, 50 or 150 years.
You see the point?
More data gives you a better understanding.
Don't throw out any particular stat because of their low frequency. Just get more data before using it.
There is more hitout to advantage then there are goals.
Do we deduce that Elijah Hollands is the best goal kicker in the league because he kicked 3 goals this week?
Is Charlie and Harry just average forwards because they didn't kick as many?
Is McGovern as good a forward as Harry given they kicked the same amount of goals?
No, get more data. It will show you trends and give you better information.
Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon - LP - 06-14-2024
(06-14-2024, 04:51 AM)kruddler date Wrote:Remember our chat about sample size of data....thats what is important.Sample size is important, no doubt about it.
But no matter how big the sample size, the data is garbage if the definitions used in the collection methods are flawed, and ultimately that is the problem with many of the AFL stats, the problem is in the methods.
The R&D saying, "Garbage In = Garbage Out, you can keep piling it higher but it's still garbage!"
Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon - DJC - 06-14-2024
Remember the old adage; garbage in, garbage out?
Most football stats are garbage and more so when considered in isolation and/or without a context. For example, the statistics would suggest that Goldy was the best ruckman on the ground but most observers, those that count anyway, would have the King as the best ruckman and best on ground to boot.
(06-14-2024, 02:59 AM)deepbluesee link Wrote:The most important stat from the Essendon game (and all games for that matter) is the Points For v the Points Against. Carlton 96 to Essendon 70 is what I care most about. Everything else can be read in many ways to suit anyone and many times will just muddy the water.
Nailed it!
Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon - LP - 06-14-2024
Jinx
Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon - DJC - 06-14-2024
(06-14-2024, 05:40 AM)LP link Wrote:Jinx
Great minds
) :