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AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - Printable Version

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Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - kruddler - 03-17-2024

(03-16-2024, 11:34 PM)Thryleon link Wrote:No. He was playing better than that.  He wasn't a highlight reel player, he was just rucking well for a quarter or two and taking a strong mark every week that was eye popping. Then there is the fact that he hits the scoreboard, and genuinely creates panic when he drifts forward because he's athletic and can actually play as a forward.

I don't want to start this whole debate again, but you are proving my point. He 'hits the scoreboard'....Its a bit of an exageration of his efforts. He only averages a goal every 3 games.
Mitch McGovern averages almost a goal a game and he's been played in defence for half his career.
Silvagni averages 3 goals every 4 games.
Cripps averages over half a goal a game.

People remember the good things he does, but remember them happening more than they actually do. His actual output has been relatively poor considering the hype.
Thats why i come across as negative, because i point out he hasn't been as good as people say. Showing potential, absolutely. Not maximising it......yet.


Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - DJC - 03-17-2024

(03-17-2024, 02:10 AM)Baggers link Wrote:I don't get any knocks on TDK... coming along nicely.

Still concerned with Hollands... yes, fantastic at 'pressure acts', first rate, but still seems to fumble with his offensive game. Yep, just a kid, too light and is learning, and maybe what he is doing at present is exactly what the coaches want from him, but I'd like to see him develop being dangerous with aggott in hand.

And I'm not in the pumping up Young group. Yep, doing a job, and doing it adequately. Does look better than last year but is that just feint praise? (Threw that in for you, Ye Rat O' the River  Wink  ;D  - sorry folks, its an 'in joke' between us). What One of the things that Young lacks is authority, which Weiters has in spades (yeah, yeah I know comparisons are unfair on Young... but the bottom line is that Weiters brings a great deal to our defense, and with him there, our defense is at its best which is what we want - our best).

I would say admirably rather than adequately.

Young has been our only tall key defender in both games.  In Round Zero, he had Daniher, Hipwood and, occasionally, McInerney to contend with.  Daniher managed 14 disposals and one goal and Hipwood had 9 disposals and one goal.  Young had 14 disposals, took 6 marks and made 7 spoils.  Of course, Young is part of a defensive unit and he relies on his fellow defenders for assistance just as he leaves his man to provide assistance when required.

Young played mostly on Lynch in Round One and, yes, you could argue that Lynch was underdone but he is still one of the premier key forwards in the game.  Lynch had 10 disposals and kicked two goals, both from soft free kicks (one against De Koning).  Young had 17 disposals (at 94%), took 10 marks and made six spoils.  Again, Young was ably supported by his teammates in defence, including our wingers.

Lynch's stats could have been a lot better if it hadn't been for Hollands covering some distance to spoil Lynch's marking attempts on at least two occasions.  On one of those occasions, Hollands got clean possession and rebounded from our defensive 50.  Yes, Ollie looks a little fumbly at times but he's in the team because of the effort he makes to get to contests and affect the outcome.




Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - DJC - 03-17-2024

(03-17-2024, 03:24 AM)kruddler link Wrote:I don't want to start this whole debate again, but you are proving my point. He 'hits the scoreboard'....Its a bit of an exageration of his efforts. He only averages a goal every 3 games.
Mitch McGovern averages almost a goal a game and he's been played in defence for half his career.
Silvagni averages 3 goals every 4 games.
Cripps averages over half a goal a game.

People remember the good things he does, but remember them happening more than they actually do. His actual output has been relatively poor considering the hype.
Thats why i come across as negative, because i point out he hasn't been as good as people say. Showing potential, absolutely. Not maximising it......yet.

Two thirds of Mitch's goals came from his three years as a forward with the Crows.  Exclude those three years and he averages less than one goal every two games and he played as a forward in at least half of those games.  That's one of the reasons he was moved to defence.  De Koning averages around one goal every three games, playing as a ruckman.  Max Gawn has to be one of the best goal kicking ruckmen and he averages around one goal every two games.  But then, Gawn doesn't have the likes of Charlie and Harry dominating the goal kicking.

The thing is that when Tom does go forward, he is a genuine scoring threat and the opposition have to send their ruckman or a key defender to him.  That makes life easier for our forwards.


Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - northernblue - 03-17-2024

(03-17-2024, 12:42 AM)DJC link Wrote:Why do we lose run and creativity with Young and Weitering playing together?

Weiters for all his attributes is not a dasher, if Young stays in then one of McGovern or kemp goes out… therefore attack is reduced


Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - laj - 03-17-2024

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/carlton-blues/went-pretty-hard-coachs-bye-plan-theory-as-blues-eye-bigname-reinforcements/news-story/84865ed3b916bb002c18a921e325c628?fbclid=IwAR2zC-FExDYxX4kQ3-685KptHbi65ixu4FS6kVHldjSH54forIz4z8bWsAs


Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - RiverRat - 03-17-2024

(03-17-2024, 03:42 AM)DJC link Wrote:Young has been our only tall key defender in both games.  In Round Zero, he had Daniher, Hipwood and, occasionally, McInerney to contend with.  Daniher managed 14 disposals and one goal and Hipwood had 9 disposals and one goal.  Young had 14 disposals, took 6 marks and made 7 spoils. 

Young played mostly on Lynch in Round One and, yes, you could argue that Lynch was underdone but he is still one of the premier key forwards in the game.  Lynch had 10 disposals and kicked two goals, both from soft free kicks (one against De Koning).  Young had 17 disposals (at 94%), took 10 marks and made six spoils. 

How many of Young's 16 marks were contested or intercept marks compared with short pass-uncontested marks provided by teammates?


Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - Lods - 03-17-2024

(03-17-2024, 03:24 AM)kruddler link Wrote:People remember the good things he does, but remember them happening more than they actually do. His actual output has been relatively poor considering the hype.
Thats why i come across as negative, because i point out he hasn't been as good as people say. Showing potential, absolutely. Not maximising it......yet.

It's the old 'unholy trinity' of player evaluation.
Observation, Statistics and Bias

Each has it's limitations.
Observation-What someone sees at the ground is different to what someone views on the television. Small efforts/ one percenters can be picked up on the vision or totally missed through both mediums depending on your concentration at the time or your position in the stands.

Statistics- are useful but are notoriously dubious because they are a raw figure that can describe a number of sceanrios.
As an example10 effective kicks that go to a team-mate don't necessarily advantage a team in the same way as another ten. It's situational

and finally
Bias-even the best of us if, we have a pre-determined opinion of a player, will give a greater emphasis to the strengths or faults we see.

As an example
Poster 'A' will say-
Harry had a good game played well around the ground, missed a couple, but the good outweighed the bad."
Poster 'B' will say-
Harry missed two sitters, nearly cost us the game, momentum killer"
(You won't hear a peep about the good aspects of his game.)

It's why we see players differently....and neither is completlely right or wrong.
They're just different opinions.
And they're our opinions at different times in a player's career.

So if some say early in 2023 that TDK isn't quite reaching expectations...it's probably a fair comment.
Ask the question early in 2024 and a few folks have probably changed sides.
The trick is not to take too long before you come around or you might miss the boat. Wink  Big Grin






Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - DJC - 03-17-2024

(03-17-2024, 04:25 AM)northernblue link Wrote:Weiters for all his attributes is not a dasher, if Young stays in then one of McGovern or kemp goes out… therefore attack is reduced

But Weiters enables rebounding from defence by his individual defensive efforts, his defensive generalship, his ability to be a target when we get possession and his creative use of the ball.  Weiters may not run and carry himself but he enables his teammates to run and carry.

There's no point having an attacking defender if he can't beat his opponent and Kemp will struggle against Larkey or Coleman-Jones and Treacy or Amiss the following round. 


Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - DJC - 03-17-2024

(03-17-2024, 05:18 AM)RiverRat link Wrote:How many of Young's 16 marks were contested or intercept marks compared with short pass-uncontested marks provided by teammates?

Young had one contested mark as did McGovern.  Kemp had two.  Young had five contested possessions, McGovern had eight and Kemp had six.  Young made six spoils, Kemp five and McGovern made two.  Kemp and Young both had seven intercepts, McGovern had nine.

If Young's teammates lack confidence in him, why would they short pass to him?


Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond - kruddler - 03-17-2024

(03-17-2024, 06:22 AM)Lods link Wrote:It's the old 'unholy trinity' of player evaluation.
Observation, Statistics and Bias

Each has it's limitations.
Observation-What someone sees at the ground is different to what someone views on the television. Small efforts/ one percenters can be picked up on the vision or totally missed through both mediums depending on your concentration at the time or your position in the stands.

Statistics- are useful but are notoriously dubious because they are a raw figure that can describe a number of sceanrios.
As an example10 effective kicks that go to a team-mate don't necessarily advantage a team in the same way as another ten. It's situational

and finally
Bias-even the best of us if, we have a pre-determined opinion of a player, will give a greater emphasis to the strengths or faults we see.

As an example
Poster 'A' will say-
Harry had a good game played well around the ground, missed a couple, but the good outweighed the bad."
Poster 'B' will say-
Harry missed two sitters, nearly cost us the game, momentum killer"
(You won't hear a peep about the good aspects of his game.)

It's why we see players differently....and neither is completlely right or wrong.
They're just different opinions.
And they're our opinions at different times in a player's career.

So if some say early in 2023 that TDK isn't quite reaching expectations...it's probably a fair comment.
Ask the question early in 2024 and a few folks have probably changed sides.
The trick is not to take too long before you come around or you might miss the boat. Wink  Big Grin

Yeah yeah, you think i'm very biased against TDK, i get it. I disagree, but you would expect me to say that.
Its hard to keep track of a particular posters thoughts on an issue on here, ironically, similar to your take on here.
Observation - some posts you might not read. Some posts you might not comprehend, or at least not fully understand....and part of that could be on me for not explaining well enough.

Statistics - a lot of 'negative' posts by me gets attention, but thats because they end up in a thread of arguments because there might be a lot of people who disagree. Whereas the positive stuff gets glossed over because its the same as everyone else.

Bias - Similar to the above, but you look for the negative and ignore the positive, or at least focus on that more.

Its funny, the whole TDK debate took 2 shapes.
1. Pittonet > TDK in pure rucking ability.
2. TDK < Silvagni (or others) around the ground.

1. People debated that 1 didn't matter. So Pittonet shouldn't play as hitouts don't matter.
2. People ignored the fact that Silvagni (or others) did better around the ground.....although slightly less in the ruck.....which people decided didn't matter anyway.

People wanted it both ways. Its why the argument kept going round in circles.

All of this was off the back of my contention that the team only needs 1 ruck to reach peak performance. Some disagreed with that, which is fine, but results seem to prove otherwise (when taking opponent into account).