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AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - Printable Version

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Re: AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - Professer E - 05-27-2023

Paul, given stats, every side should have about five years of good, five of bad and ten middling (heading up or down) every 29 years, given the life of a really  good senior players is about 15 years.  Some clubs eg Geelong, Cats have actually rebuilt numerous times in the last twenty years and defied gravity so to speak.

We haven't been better than middling for thirty years. That's a statistical outlier - you couldn't be as crap as we are, for as long as we have, without almost deliberately wanting to not get better..we're St Kilda 1970-2000.


Re: AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - PaulP - 05-27-2023

(05-27-2023, 02:55 AM)Professer E link Wrote:Paul, given stats, every side should have about five years of good, five of bad and ten middling (heading up or down) every 29 years, given the life of a really  good senior players is about 15 years.  Some clubs eg Geelong, Cats have actually rebuilt numerous times in the last twenty years and defied gravity so to speak.

We haven't been better than middling for thirty years. That's a statistical outlier - you couldn't be as crap as we are, for as long as we have, without almost deliberately wanting to not get better..we're St Kilda 1970-2000.

No doubt our decline since 2001 has been precipitous. We certainly want to get better, no doubt about that. We've had a succession of people in that time, at every level of the organisation : board, CEO, Head of football, senior coach, assistant coaches, high performance, medical / rehab. Hundreds of players have been turned over in that time. And yet here we are. All those that have come and gone are supposedly professional, competent, committed. I certainly believe they are. Many have come from successful organisations, and have come in specifically because we want them to impart some of that successful culture to us. I'm quite convinced that a materialist / atomistic approach is not adequate to understand or solve the problems. I don't think you can, ahead of time, be fully cognisant that if you add this person plus this coach plus this player etc. you will achieve success. I'm certainly not suggesting anything supernatural, but there is some greater whole, beyond intentionality and hope, that gets created for successful clubs, probably by accident, within a given time period. It certainly involves good planning and good decisions, but something more IMO.


Re: AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - WASurfer - 05-27-2023

The heat is on over here in the West on Simpson and the Eagles because of their performances in the last 2 and a bit seasons. We belted them but realistically, are we much better off at the moment? They have about 16 of their starting 23 out with injuries so they have some excuses, and some poor list management hasn't helped. Calls for sackings from the top down....CEO, board and coach or a combination. Fans are losing it.

We had 4 picks in the top 20 in 2015 and got Weitering, McKay, Curnow and Cunningham. The first 3 were/are AA level players in recent years. Then we've had Walsh and burnt top 10 picks on Dow, O'Brien and SPS. Not to mention long term deals on pretty big $$$ to bring in Martin, Williams and McGovern...and given up top 10 draft picks to bring in Saad and Cerra.

And after all that, we're likely to be in the bottom 6 by the end of this weekend with really only one "genuine" win this year over Geelong. The two wins over North and WCE are meaningless.

We've shown in the last two seasons that our best is good enough. Even the first 15 minutes last night, we absolutely dominated that game....and still lost by 5 goals. Yet something just has to be wrong internally at the club for this to just be almost like we're back where we started. We have the players....we have/had nearly a full list to choose from for last night's game....yet we look so far off being a top 8 side it's not funny. Some bits last night were just about laughable...it's that sad. To see McGovern and Weitering fly for a mark and spoil each other 40m out from the opposition goal. To see blokes just continually turning it over. If we were happy to drop JSOS for a couple of weeks of poor form, then McKay simply has to go this week. Lost count of how many marks he fluffed last night and when he DID get it, he couldn't hit a pig in the bum with a frying pan.

Melbourne and Essendon in the next two weeks with likely 4 or 5 blokes out injured.....we're seriously looking at a bottom 4 finish now....after everything that last year promised.


Re: AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - LoveNavy - 05-27-2023

(05-27-2023, 03:21 AM)PaulP link Wrote:No doubt our decline since 2001 has been precipitous. We certainly want to get better, no doubt about that. We've had a succession of people in that time, at every level of the organisation : board, CEO, Head of football, senior coach, assistant coaches, high performance, medical / rehab. Hundreds of players have been turned over in that time. And yet here we are. All those that have come and gone are supposedly professional, competent, committed. I certainly believe they are. Many have come from successful organisations, and have come in specifically because we want them to impart some of that successful culture to us. I'm quite convinced that a materialist / atomistic approach is not adequate to understand or solve the problems. I don't think you can, ahead of time, be fully cognisant that if you add this person plus this coach plus this player etc. you will achieve success. I'm certainly not suggesting anything supernatural, but there is some greater whole, beyond intentionality and hope, that gets created for successful clubs, probably by accident, within a given time period. It certainly involves good planning and good decisions, but something more IMO.

Indeed. The whole is more than the sum of its parts.

My guess of the mystery component has something to do with fun. When there's a sort of harmony within the club. So that all individuals feel safe, valued, and strongly committed to the greater good. Where all individuals are well matched to their very clear goals. Where performance is reviewed regularly with transparency, learning focus, and clear process forward.

Of course the bringing together of those individuals is the most important process of all. Ok. I'm just dreaming now. Guess that's my way of coping with another disappointment ?

Go Blues


Re: AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - Thryleon - 05-27-2023

(05-27-2023, 04:20 AM)WASurfer link Wrote:The heat is on over here in the West on Simpson and the Eagles because of their performances in the last 2 and a bit seasons. We belted them but realistically, are we much better off at the moment? They have about 16 of their starting 23 out with injuries so they have some excuses, and some poor list management hasn't helped. Calls for sackings from the top down....CEO, board and coach or a combination. Fans are losing it.

We had 4 picks in the top 20 in 2015 and got Weitering, McKay, Curnow and Cunningham. The first 3 were/are AA level players in recent years. Then we've had Walsh and burnt top 10 picks on Dow, O'Brien and SPS. Not to mention long term deals on pretty big $$$ to bring in Martin, Williams and McGovern...and given up top 10 draft picks to bring in Saad and Cerra.

And after all that, we're likely to be in the bottom 6 by the end of this weekend with really only one "genuine" win this year over Geelong. The two wins over North and WCE are meaningless.

We've shown in the last two seasons that our best is good enough. Even the first 15 minutes last night, we absolutely dominated that game....and still lost by 5 goals. Yet something just has to be wrong internally at the club for this to just be almost like we're back where we started. We have the players....we have/had nearly a full list to choose from for last night's game....yet we look so far off being a top 8 side it's not funny. Some bits last night were just about laughable...it's that sad. To see McGovern and Weitering fly for a mark and spoil each other 40m out from the opposition goal. To see blokes just continually turning it over. If we were happy to drop JSOS for a couple of weeks of poor form, then McKay simply has to go this week. Lost count of how many marks he fluffed last night and when he DID get it, he couldn't hit a pig in the bum with a frying pan.

Melbourne and Essendon in the next two weeks with likely 4 or 5 blokes out injured.....we're seriously looking at a bottom 4 finish now....after everything that last year promised.
Sorry did I see a different match?  Dominated the first 15 mins?

Just curious because I thought Sydney battled hard whilst we were scrapping and scraping and in a bit of an arm wrestle against a team with more hunger for the contest and a bit more physical to boot.  We endured that and tried to play footy more than anything but it was an ugly turnover filled match IMHO.


Re: AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - PaulP - 05-27-2023

(05-27-2023, 04:28 AM)LoveNavy link Wrote:Indeed. The whole is more than the sum of its parts.

My guess of the mystery component has something to do with fun. When there's a sort of harmony within the club. So that all individuals feel safe, valued, and strongly committed to the greater good. Where all individuals are well matched to their very clear goals. Where performance is reviewed regularly with transparency, learning focus, and clear process forward.

Of course the bringing together of those individuals is the most important process of all. Ok. I'm just dreaming now. Guess that's my way of coping with another disappointment ?

Go Blues

Yes, nice post and I agree. Despite the best efforts of dozens, possibly hundreds of competent people, the moment when it all clicks and comes together is random and unpredictable. No club will ever come out and say that, and supporters don't want to hear it, but IMO it's true.

Geelong are an outlier to some degree. A better comparison for us would probably be Richmond, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne, all three of whom were mired in nothingness for ever, and then suddenly got their sh1t together against all expectations.

I'm certainly not suggesting we do nothing. Clearly we need to be proactive and attack the problem on as many fronts as we can. 


Re: AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - WASurfer - 05-27-2023

Thry...at one point it was 2.4 to 1 goal and we were getting plenty of the ball, bombing it into the F50....we had the tackling pressure right up and not sure what the inside 50 stat was but we were miles in front at that stage but just couldn't finish off in front of goal. But all those missed shots seemed to just sap the confidence of everyone. Charlie was marking everything in sight....except they were all up the ground mostly.


Re: AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - Gointocarlton - 05-27-2023

(05-27-2023, 04:40 AM)WASurfer link Wrote:Thry...at one point it was 2.4 to 1 goal and we were getting plenty of the ball, bombing it into the F50....we had the tackling pressure right up and not sure what the inside 50 stat was but we were miles in front at that stage but just couldn't finish off in front of goal. But all those missed shots seemed to just sap the confidence of everyone. Charlie was marking everything in sight....except they were all up the ground mostly.
This is a huge factor IMO.


Re: AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - PaulP - 05-27-2023

(05-27-2023, 04:44 AM)Gointocarlton link Wrote:This is a huge factor IMO.

Yes, and it becomes a reinforcement loop.


Re: AFL Rd 11 2023 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Sydney - Gointocarlton - 05-27-2023

(05-27-2023, 04:44 AM)PaulP link Wrote:Yes, and it becomes a reinforcement loop.
Yes agreed