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+--- Thread: China (/thread-5591.html)
Re: China - Gointocarlton - 06-16-2022
(06-16-2022, 04:54 AM)Lods link Wrote:They would, because they have nuclear weapons.Helps that they are a led by a tyrant and a loony.
Much, much harder to defeat and occupy a country our size with military alone.
Re: China - DJC - 06-16-2022
OK, let's look at EB's suggestion that China could invade Australia by landing paratroops.
The Chinese airforce has the Y-20 transport, a knock off of the C-17 Globemaster but with dodgy, underpowered turbofan engines that render it unreliable and underpowered in comparison to the C-17. The Y-20 can transport around 200 paratroops or one Type 99 tank (roughly equivalent to the Leopards that we scrapped around ten years ago). The Y-20 would have to land on a suitable airstrip in order to unload its tank. The Y-20 has a range of just under 8,000km, meaning that they could reach northern Australia, drop their paratroopers, then crash into the sea on the way home.
China's J-20 "fifth generation" fighter jet has serious problems with its engines and cannot carry the weapons or perform the operational tasks the Chinese were hoping for. That means that the Y-20s, on their suicide paratroop delivery mission would have no protection and would be defenceless against our Super Hornets, Growlers and F-35s. Even if some paratroops managed to land, they would lack heavy weapons and would be slaughtered by our integrated infantry and armour battle groups.
An amphibious assault would probably have a slightly greater chance of success but only if it was protected by air superiority. China's aircraft carrier could not provide that in the face of threats from our far more sophisticated surface warships, submarines and land-based aircraft.
China has massive armed forces but, like Russia, they spend a fraction of what the USA invests in its military. Chinese military hardware is almost exclusively cheap copies of Russian weaponry and is decades behind western military technology. More importantly, their command and control is stuck in the quagmire that is the Chinese Communist Party. Political extremism may suppress a population but it doesn't have the innovation and free thinking that wins wars.
Of course, China could obliterate us with nuclear weapons but why would it do that and face nuclear obliteration from the our allies, defence partners and its long term opponents?
A conventional warfare attack on Australia is beyond China's capacity. The greatest threat China poses to Australia, apart from shutting down markets, is cyber warfare and we should be savvy enough to counter that.
Re: China - ElwoodBlues1 - 06-22-2022
(06-16-2022, 01:14 AM)DJC link Wrote:I think you’re vastly overestimating China’s military capacity EB … and underestimating our defence assets.DJ, Think we might be under estimating them, they seem to have been busy......
I’m working today - on a rain break - but I will provide further details when I get home.
Remember that China has one aircraft carrier - an ex-Soviet vessel that was never finished. It’s very old technology and would be easy meat for our Collins class subs and air to surface missiles.
https://au.yahoo.com/news/chinese-jets-scrambled-after-act-of-intimidation-above-taiwan-000024138.html
https://interestingengineering.com/china-carrier-the-fujian
https://eurasiantimes.com/us-fears-losing-air-superiority-to-china-by-2035/
They appear to be testing the waters literally and its clear why they want some of those Pacific nations with nice large deep water
Harbours and to upgrade airstrips. They also have been investing in air tankers to replace some of their ageing Soviet types, I see the Chinese military lacking the experience of the USA but having the advantage of being closer to Taiwan and being able to deploy more numbers quicker. IMO its more concerning everyday as the Chinese practice and try and give their military more exposure to real life battle experience and just push the boundaries more and in 2023/24 I fear Taiwan will be blockaded and then face invasion unless the USA lift their game and show more intent which is doubtful imo under a Biden Government, the man himself has said he would intervene but his advisors have used the word " assist" and pulled back on his more assertive threats to China so I'm not having a crack at Joe but more the use of the phrase " Strategic Ambiguity" as a policy which gives the USA an out.
Re: China - Gointocarlton - 06-22-2022
(06-22-2022, 07:18 AM)ElwoodBlues1 link Wrote:DJ, Think we might be under estimating them, they seem to have been busy......The Chinese might be lacking the military experience of the US but like their Russian mates, they have the US covered in nut job factor. They are out there looking for trouble and will be only to happy to engage with anyone who entertains their poking.
https://au.yahoo.com/news/chinese-jets-scrambled-after-act-of-intimidation-above-taiwan-000024138.html
https://interestingengineering.com/china-carrier-the-fujian
https://eurasiantimes.com/us-fears-losing-air-superiority-to-china-by-2035/
They appear to be testing the waters literally and its clear why they want some of those Pacific nations with nice large deep water
Harbours and to upgrade airstrips. They also have been investing in air tankers to replace some of their ageing Soviet types, I see the Chinese military lacking the experience of the USA but having the advantage of being closer to Taiwan and being able to deploy more numbers quicker. IMO its more concerning everyday as the Chinese practice and try and give their military more exposure to real life battle experience and just push the boundaries more and in 2023/24 I fear Taiwan will be blockaded and then face invasion unless the USA lift their game and show more intent which is doubtful imo under a Biden Government, the man himself has said he would intervene but his advisors have used the word " assist" and pulled back on his more assertive threats to China so I'm not having a crack at Joe but more the use of the phrase " Strategic Ambiguity" as a policy which gives the USA an out.
Re: China - kruddler - 06-22-2022
(06-22-2022, 09:21 AM)Gointocarlton link Wrote:The Chinese might be lacking the military experience of the US but like their Russian mates, they have the US covered in nut job factor. They are out there looking for trouble and will be only to happy to engage with anyone who entertains their poking.You don't have to use nuclear weapons and other heavy hitting methods of war....
You just have to have the enemy believe you are crazy enough to use nuclear weapons etc.....
Re: China - Thryleon - 06-22-2022
The Chinese have waged a war for generations already. You don't have to look far to see how successful their invasion has been.
Re: China - ElwoodBlues1 - 06-23-2022
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-largest-destroyer-most-powerful-055-lhasa-renhai-nanchang-zumwalt-2022-6
Several military experts told the Global Times, a Chinese state media outlet, that the destroyer's role was to deter foreign intervention in case China conducted a military attack on Taiwan.
Seems a well equipped vessel and to me there is no doubt everything the Chinese are building military wise has a theme to it and the end result has Taiwan on the right hand side of the equals sign.
Re: China - Gointocarlton - 06-23-2022
(06-23-2022, 05:40 AM)ElwoodBlues1 link Wrote:https://www.businessinsider.com/china-largest-destroyer-most-powerful-055-lhasa-renhai-nanchang-zumwalt-2022-6Penny Wong will sort it
Several military experts told the Global Times, a Chinese state media outlet, that the destroyer's role was to deter foreign intervention in case China conducted a military attack on Taiwan.
Seems a well equipped vessel and to me there is no doubt everything the Chinese are building military wise has a theme to it and the end result has Taiwan on the right hand side of the equals sign.
Re: China - DJC - 06-23-2022
This is a very good, recent appraisal of the military threat China poses to Australia:
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/australia-and-growing-reach-china-s-military
Another important factor is that, apart from oppressing its own citizens, China's military hasn't been involved in a shooting war since the middle of last century.
Re: China - ElwoodBlues1 - 06-23-2022
(06-23-2022, 09:10 AM)DJC link Wrote:This is a very good, recent appraisal of the military threat China poses to Australia:Good article, however China seem on course to fulfill most of those objectives and Taiwan is the big domino that if it falls opens up the Pacific and us to more intimidation especially economically.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/australia-and-growing-reach-china-s-military
Another important factor is that, apart from oppressing its own citizens, China's military hasn't been involved in a shooting war since the middle of last century.
China and India recently exchanged pleasantries on the border and from memory 20 odd Indian troops or police were killed so while they haven't been in battle with anyone they don't mind skirmishes and are just looking for an excuse to escalate and test boundaries.
They are an expansionist nation who need to be stopped before they take Taiwan.
Imho that article didn't say anything to convince me that China won't be owning Taiwan sooner than later and that the USA are a sure thing to intervene.