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+--- Thread: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? (/thread-5292.html)
Re: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? - DJC - 07-02-2021
(07-02-2021, 04:52 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:Its very easy to make this assertion, but two things.
1. He is leading the coleman indicating he is in good form.
2. How does this stack up against the rest of the AFL?
Using the bulldogs as a comparison (A benchmark team for multiple reasons):
They have scored 1361 points for the season whilst conceding 916 and sit second having only lost 3 games.
Their top 3 goal kickers are:
Western Bulldogs*
Josh Bruce (37) - 14 games
Aaron Naughton (33) - 14 Games
Marcus Bontempelli (21) - 14 games
We by contrast have scored 1165 points (a difference of 196 points which is the equivalent of 32 goals and some behinds)
Our top 3 goal kickers are:
Harry McKay (43)
Eddie Betts (20)
Matt Owies (13)
Here is the caveat: Owies has only played 8 games and Eddie has only played 12 including multiple matches where he hasnt scored a goal (0.4 against Brisbane off the top of my head).
How he stacks up:
Harry Mckay - 43 goals 27 behinds
Josh Bruce - 37 goals 13 behinds
Aaron Naughton - 33 goals 29 behinds.
After this lengthy study, I think I still cannot draw any firm conclusions about the way we use Harry because this is an outcome focussed assessment to determine our reliance on Harry. In a season where we have reverted to a make shift forwardline and Harry as one of few players to be there each and every time we enter forward 50, it would make sense that the stats show a reliance on him, but an over reliance is hard to really draw the comparison. i.e. scoring shots wise, on outcomes, Harry has had a whopping 8 more scoring shots than Naughton.... Thats not an enormous difference really particularly when you look at Bruce with another 50 scoring shots. More options would mean less reliance, and we havent been scared to use other avenues to goal they just either kick poorly or havent been in scoring form (thinking of De Koning, Pittonet, Casboult, Cripps resting forward, Jack with 4.10 for the season and not playing every week).
A much more illuminating comparison would be centred on number of forward entries, vs number of entries where Harry was kicked to.
The big difference is that the Bulldogs have two key forwards who have kicked 70 goals between them, not to mention their top midfielder with 20 odd. Our key forwards have kicked around 50 goals and our top midfielder has kicked 5 goals.
It's great that Harry is heading towards 50 goals, but I'd prefer to see two key forwards sharing the load and a better contribution from the midfield. Our small forwards are contributing but, again, it would be great if more of them were regularly troubling the scorers.
Re: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? - ElwoodBlues1 - 07-02-2021
(07-02-2021, 05:19 AM)PaulP link Wrote:Further to my previous post, I'd be keen to see if anyone believes we could kick a winning score without Harry. I reckon the Doggies could without Naughton or Bruce.If we didnt have Harry we would be struggling to beat anyone.........need Charlie back to compete with the top 8 teams though.
Re: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? - PaulP - 07-02-2021
(07-02-2021, 05:35 AM)ElwoodBlues1 link Wrote:If we didnt have Harry we would be struggling to beat anyone.........need Charlie back to compete with the top 8 teams though.
Yes, Teague's hands may well be tied because of injuries, but that table is still a disturbing read IMO.
Re: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? - Thryleon - 07-02-2021
With all due respect is it possible for us to have relied on Harry less given the make up of our team? We fared ok with Harry off after quarter time vs Sydney and he tends to score in clumps.
I think the over reliance on individuals is being over stated somewhat.
Re: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? - kruddler - 07-02-2021
(07-02-2021, 02:36 AM)laj link Wrote:This game is suddenly really important after Richmond's loss in last night's game. Win and we are just a game out of the 8.Lose and Freo knock Tigers out of the 8.
Its a win-win.
....just as an aside.
When was the last time the 'big 4' were all outside the 8 this late in the season (which will happen if Freo win).
Re: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? - Gointocarlton - 07-02-2021
(07-02-2021, 02:40 AM)crashlander link Wrote:We don't deserve to be in the 8. If we get there, we won't last long. Too many injuries.We wont get there, nothing surer, nothing to worry about.
Re: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? - kruddler - 07-02-2021
(07-02-2021, 09:12 AM)Gointocarlton link Wrote:We wont get there, nothing surer, nothing to worry about.Correct, but we could finish 9th without too much trouble.
Re: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? - LoveNavy - 07-02-2021
Pre-game Fun fact (or not?)
Umpires
Ms Eleni
Nathan Williamson - the Peel born infamous No. 22. Pretty sure many will remember his recent record with us? The worst anti-calton bias I can recall
Robert O'Gorman No.10 (?)
Re: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? - rocky - 07-02-2021
(07-02-2021, 11:52 AM)LoveNavy link Wrote:Pre-game Fun fact (or not?)
Umpires
Ms Eleni
Nathan Williamson - the Peel born infamous No. 22. Pretty sure many will remember his recent record with us? The worst anti-calton bias I can recall
Robert O'Gorman No.10 (?)
What, we didn't get Ray again??
Re: Pre game Promise AFL Rd 16 Carlton vs Fremantle at MCG? - LoveNavy - 07-02-2021
If he's consistent, No.22 will show us how fair Ray is