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+--- Thread: AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm (/thread-5544.html)
AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm - kruddler - 03-05-2022
Sorry, thought I already had this up.
Game today against another team we should beat.
We've made our first change to the lineup in weeks, a forced change with Lucy mcevoy an out with a sore calf and Brooke Walker returning.
A point has been made about half wanting effort and commitment and walker being left out sent alarm bells her way.
Well she had 7 tackles last week in th3 vflw and has been recalled this week.
Finals are mathematically possible, but realistically no chance. Still, would be good to get 3 on the trot
Re: AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm - crashlander - 03-05-2022
Our team for this week:
Backs: Mua Laloifi Gab Pound
Half Backs: Keely Sherar Paige Trudgeon Daisy Walker
Centres: Mimi Hill Grace Egan Kerryn Harrington
Half Forwards: Darcy Vescio Jess Good Brooke Walker
Forwards: Nik Stevens Maddy Guerin
Rucks: Breann Moody Maddy Prespakis Georgie Gee
Interchange: Elise O'Dea Abbie McKay Nat Plane Jess dal Pos Courtney Jones
Re: AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm - Mav - 03-05-2022
To say Carlton has a mathematical possibility of making finals might be stretching it. Ignoring the other teams between 6th-placed Collingwood and ourselves for the moment, Collingwood would have to lose both remaining matches and Carlton would not only have to win both but also bridge a percentage differential of almost 40%. I'd love to see the sorts of scores that would see Collingwood losing 20% and Carlton gaining 20% in the space of 2 games.
Re: AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm - Mav - 03-06-2022
Looking at the points for and against, it looks as though we could bridge the gap if we score 60+ points, keeping the opposition scoreless, and Collingwood remain scoreless and their opposition win by 60+ points. That would probably also be true if the score differentials would be around 60 points but I couldn't be bothered working that out. That's a pretty tall ask given Carlton averages just 28 points per game. In round 7 Carlton did beat St Kilda by 48-2 but to paraphrase Kerry Packer's comment about Alan Bond, you only get 1 St Kilda in your season and we've had ours. Gold Coast and Melbourne lie ahead.
Re: AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm - DJC - 03-06-2022
It's good to see Brooke Walker back but Lucy McEvoy has been very influential in our last few games. We'll miss her strength and dependability. Let's hope Brooke's run and creativity can compensate for Lucy's absence.
Re: AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm - LP - 03-06-2022
(03-06-2022, 12:30 AM)DJC date Wrote:It's good to see Brooke Walker back but Lucy McEvoy has been very influential in our last few games. We'll miss her strength and dependability. Let's hope Brooke's run and creativity can compensate for Lucy's absence.Yes, I agree.
McEvoy is a bit of a loss because she compensates for our general smaller size and lesser physicality, also McEvoy playing her role so well really allows Harrington and Laloifi more freedom to run and intercept. They may be forced to play a bit tighter this week, but if Brooke has her run going she might be a weapon from the HBF or Wing.
Re: AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm - kruddler - 03-06-2022
(03-05-2022, 11:54 PM)Mav link Wrote:To say Carlton has a mathematical possibility of making finals might be stretching it. Ignoring the other teams between 6th-placed Collingwood and ourselves for the moment, Collingwood would have to lose both remaining matches and Carlton would not only have to win both but also bridge a percentage differential of almost 40%. I'd love to see the sorts of scores that would see Collingwood losing 20% and Carlton gaining 20% in the space of 2 games.
Mathematically possible... as I said.
Realistically, no chance....as I said.
Re: AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm - Mav - 03-06-2022
Depends on what maths you use. In probability theory, in the limit vanishingly small probabilities are set to 0. If you have a unit square and pick 1 point within it and then someone else picks a point at random, the probability of it being the same point is 0 rather than being very small. That's the basis of continuous probability theory. Getting Carlton into the finals requires magical thinking rather than maths.
I'd reserve 'mathematically possible' for an unlikely run of wins & losses in the run to the finals.
Re: AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm - kruddler - 03-06-2022
(03-06-2022, 03:32 AM)Mav link Wrote:Depends on what maths you use. In probability theory, in the limit vanishingly small probabilities are set to 0. If you have a unit square and pick 1 point within it and then someone else picks a point at random, the probability of it being the same point is 0 rather than being very small. That's the basis of continuous probability theory. Getting Carlton into the finals requires magical thinking rather than maths.Of all the things to get on your high horse about, this is what you are choosing?? Why? Are you that bored?
Go for a walk or something.
Re: AFLW R9 - Carlton vs Gold Coast @Ikon - Sun 5:10pm - kruddler - 03-06-2022
FWIW, go back last year and look at Carlton vs Gold Coast.
80 - 20. 10 goal win.
If the same was to happen this year, and we beat the dees by 2 goals - we end up with 95.8%
Pies are up against the dominant crows shortly. Could easily be beaten by 5 goals.
Pies play tigers in last round. Lose that one by 2 goals - they end up with 95.6%
All of this is based around around scores were the losing team gets 20 or so points.
So yeah, mathematically possible......but realistically, no chance.